cryptogamestop10|突然就没人买了？多个知名品牌集体降价、打折！“从业20年来生意最淡的‘五一’”

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The other dayCryptogamestop10The topic # gold price fell to a nearly one-month low # went on the hot search, sparking discussion.

After rising for a period of time, the international gold price has obviously reversed recently, and the gold price of brand jewelry has also decreased. According to the China Securities News, during the May Day holiday, the reporter visited and investigated the gold consumer market and found that the terminal gold price appeared due to the decline of international gold prices and the promotion of the May Day holiday.Cryptogamestop10There has been a relatively obvious decline. After the discount of many brands of gold, the price is back below 600 yuan / g.

Multiple brands: discount, price reduction!

It is reported that many brands of gold in many places have launched "May Day" offers and quotations have returned to the "5 era".

According to the China Securities News, Zhou Dasheng store sales staff said: "the holiday discount of 100 yuan per gram, 599 yuan / g after the discount, plus the cost." During the holiday period, in addition to store activities, shopping malls also offer preferential activities for the purchase of money. "

Lao Fengxiang store salesperson also said: "at present, in addition to gold is 50 yuan per gram discount, other categories of products are basically 50% discount." The May Day holiday superimposed on Mother's Day is approaching, and there are relatively large concessions for other categories of products except gold. "

In addition, according to the Ningbo Evening News, a gold counter clerk in Dongmen Yintai said that the discount activity was much stronger than usual: "the full gold jewelry priced in grams is 50 yuan per gram, reduced by 663 yuan per gram (May 2 price)." Gold is free of depreciation fee, and some of the products are discounted by 10%. "

According to a shop assistant of a gold brand in Yinzhou Wanda, during the May Day holiday, gold jewelry is reduced by 100 yuan per gram, which is calculated according to the gold price of the day, which is as low as 600 yuan per gram.

In addition to gold, the price discounts of some products represented by diamonds and Hetian jade are also relatively large.

"the weakest May Day in 20 years."

In sharp contrast to the popular tourist city "people following the crowd" during the May Day holiday, many gold stores are empty.

Everbright Securities (rights protection) research report shows that due to the impact of high gold prices in the short term, the retail demand for gold jewelry is weak. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry above the limit increased by 3% in March 2024 compared with the same period last year.Cryptogamestop10.1%, the growth rate is 1% lower than that in January-February 2024.Cryptogamestop10.8 percentage points.

According to the Chao News report, during the holiday, Ms. Wang, the manager of a gold store in the Wulin business district in Hangzhou, said that business was really a little slow on this May Day holiday: "I have been working for 20 years. This year's May Day is the weakest May Day holiday. In the first three days of May Day, the weakest day only did more than 20,000 yuan of business, compared with at least 50,000 before May Day." Ms. Wang said that the high price of gold when people travel is the reason for the slow business of gold shops during the holidays.

As early as before the holiday, Ms. Wang had a premonition that sales during the May Day holiday would not be very good, so she did not arrange for employees to work overtime, which is also a rare situation. "in the past, sales overtime was arranged more or less during the holidays, because there were so many people coming in, and if we didn't work overtime, we were afraid that we wouldn't be able to receive it. Since April, the price of gold has been high, and the number of shoppers has obviously decreased."

Ms. Wang revealed that she also went to a jewelry city in Hangzhou yesterday and found that the shops also did not have many customers. "some customers say they are waiting for a big drop in June. I don't know why they say so. In fact, many customers still don't do it from Spring Festival to Women's Day and from Women's Day to May Day. As a matter of fact, the price of gold on May Day is cheap, so come and buy it quickly! " Ms. Wang sighed.

Mr. Zhang, an owner of three jewelry stores in Hangzhou, told reporters that this holiday business is really not as good as the previous holiday business, and he did not arrange for employees to work overtime. On May 2, he simply took his family to travel.

Industry: the price of gold is easy to rise but difficult to fall

There is still upward momentum in the medium to long term.

According to the Securities Times, Sha Chuan, a fund manager at Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF, said central banks continued to buy gold, pushing gold prices above the previous threshold, which led some wait-and-see investors or trend traders to chase higher.

But what is different from the past is that the recent rise in gold prices and the rise in real interest rates are actually not in line with the law of history, showing non-fundamental trading factors. The central bank's gold-buying behavior has a certain persistence, but the trend of rising and short stop-loss behavior may not be sustained. "in the future, gold prices may have a large adjustment or shock after the current level or short-term rise. Asset volatility will increase, and risk-averse investors need to carefully consider their affordability. "

"Gold may continue to be under upward pressure from a strong dollar and US bond yields in the short term, but it still has upward momentum in the medium to long term." Wang Xiang, fund manager of the Boshi Fund Index and quantitative Investment Department, said that the short-term volatility of gold prices has increased, and the attitude towards gold's short-term marginal adjustment tendency remains unchanged, but investors have further increased their attention during the adjustment period. this may be a better chance to re-enter the market throughout the year. "if the subsequent macro evolution does move towards re-inflation, the high bond interest payments and fiscal deficit in the United States, as well as the gradual consumption of the US liquidity safety pad, mean that the Fed has limited room for further tightening. Real interest rates, which are highly negatively related to gold assets, will really expand the downside, and gold trading odds will increase significantly. It is suggested that investors should actively pay attention to the emergence of intervention opportunities after the subsequent price fall. "

In the view of Shen Jing, fund manager of Morgan Stanley Fund Equity Investment Department, the core influencing factor of gold is the medium-and long-term real interest rate in the United States. After the Fed raised interest rates at its peak, the periodic decline in interest rates on 10-year US Treasuries catalyzed the start of gold prices. The escalation of the geo-conflict in April further promoted the price of gold to rise, and the risk aversion attribute of gold became a short-term influencing factor, which has greater uncertainty. As a result, gold prices have fallen back from new highs after the situation has eased slightly. In the medium to long term, the market's concern about the weakening of US dollar credit, as well as the behavior of central banks' continued gold purchases in recent years, support gold prices easily. "

　　“短期来看，市场抢跑宽松预期交易，短期快速冲高可能会一定程度上带来获利了结的回调风险。在这种背景下，盲目追涨并不理智。若后续黄金出现回调，仍可逢低进行配置。”国泰基金表示，黄金作为避险资产，从资产配置的角度，与股票、债券等相关性较低，适合在投资组合里配置，以平滑组合的波动性。建议投资者结合全球宏观经济走势、地缘政治形势及全球央行购金情况综合判断。对于普通的投资者，建议结合自身风险偏好考虑，或可从长期配置的角度将部分可投资资产配置黄金资产。

　　针对前期已有持仓的投资者，华夏基金表示不建议清仓卖出。“一旦卖出将来再想买入未必有较好的买入时机。如果短期内有回调还好，但如果未来黄金走势持续呈现震荡上行，那很难选择再次入场机会。”华夏基金表示，从中长期来看，当前全球处于一个逆全球化进程中，由于逆全球化将带来不确定性增加，贸易摩擦成本等也相应提升，未来通胀中枢将逐渐上移。黄金作为抗通胀资产，从中长期看也大概率能跑赢通胀。“对于一类中长期处于上升通道的资产来说，其实不建议去频繁做买入卖出的波段操作，建议大家把黄金当作一种另类资产去进行投资，博取一个配置型收益。”

　　（本文不构成投资建议，据此操作风险自担）

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