jackpotjackpotresult| Crazy! Copper prices broke 10,000 in one fell swoop

SourceJackpotjackpotresultAluminum road

Core hint:

During the week, confidence in the copper market continued to strengthen, the degree of price acceptance at the industrial terminal increased, and the increased willingness to prepare goods led the market to further upside. By the close of the week, LME3 Lun Copper closed at US $10011 / ton, up 1%.Jackpotjackpotresult.38%Jackpotjackpotresult2406 of the main copper in Shanghai closed at 81100 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 2.Jackpotjackpotresult.68%; Fubao spot copper electrolytic copper was quoted at 80040 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.27%.

one

Market summary

1. Price trend: this week, as of April 26, LME3 copper closed at 10011 US dollars / ton, up 1.38%; Shanghai copper 2406 closed at 81100 yuan / ton, up 2.68%; Fubao spot copper electrolytic copper reported 80040 yuan / ton, up 1.27%. 2, inventory: as of April 26, LME inventory recorded 118550 tons, a decrease of 1850 tons; as of April 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper weekly explicit inventory of 287480 tons, down 12547 tons from last week; LME and the previous period of the total explicit inventory of 406000 tons, a decrease of 16140 tons compared with the previous week, an increase of 101.4% compared with last year. 3. Supply: the domestic copper concentrate roughing processing fee has further dropped to 0 yuan / ton, overseas copper mine disturbances occur frequently, and there are many news of short-term copper mine shutdown, but the medium-and long-term overseas mine production expansion plan is further launched. The market expects that the speed of copper mine development is lower than that of green energy development, and there are still expectations of supply shortage. In terms of scrap copper supply, the import volume of scrap copper increased slightly in March, but the port scrap inventory accumulated more, and the domestic scrap supply was slightly loose during the week. 4. Demand: the acceptance of high copper prices by downstream terminals has increased. Previously, customers who have not received goods have begun to urge the factory to speed up the delivery rate. In addition, there has also been a slight increase in downstream raw material inventory. However, the end-market consumption is still relatively sluggish, and it is expected that the processing end such as cable will form a short-term demand point.

two

Price review

1. Futures prices Review Copper prices rose for the fifth week in a row. Lme Copper rose 1.18% to US $9991 / ton, with an intraday high of US $10028, the lowest since April 2022, with a low of US $9627 and an amplitude of US $401. The main 2406 contract of Shanghai Copper closed at 81100 yuan / ton on Wednesday, an increase of 2.28%. The intraday high was 81180 yuan / ton, the highest since May 2006, and reached the second-highest monthly high, with a minimum of 77650 yuan per ton and an amplitude of 3530 yuan.

LME Copper (USD)

Trend of Shanghai Copper (Yuan)

2. Spot market review the average discount price of good copper liter in Fubao Shanghai this week is 190 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from the previous month. The average price of electrolytic copper in Fortune Shanghai is 79170 yuan / ton, up 2055 yuan / ton from the previous month. The market hit a new high this week, approaching the May Day holiday, there is a demand for replenishment in advance downstream, with the market pullback on Tuesday, buying gradually increased, although fear of heights is still heavy, downstream passive rigid demand to enter the market. In the trade market, there is an abundant supply of consignors and a fear of heights downstream, which leads to the delay of going to the warehouse during the peak season, and the discount is generally slightly expanded. With the continuous expansion of export profits and the increase in domestic re-exports, it is understood that domestic imports of non-standard copper have increased recently. The discount is expected to remain high next week.

The price and sticking water of electrolytic copper

Scrap copper prices rose 1200 yuan / ton this week, bright copper prices around the 72000 yuan / ton, a record high, brass affected by poor consumption with a smaller increase. Compared with last week, the trading volume of scrap copper market rebounded this week. With the pullback of the market on Tuesday, the copper factory purchased more raw materials for three consecutive days, and the mindset of the consignors cooled down. And after the market broke through the 80,000 mark, the rigid demand of cable enterprises entered the market to purchase scrap copper rods, prompting manufacturers to enhance their enthusiasm for production.

three

Fundamental change

1. Exchange inventory changes Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks fell by 12550 tons to 287495 tons this week, while lme copper stocks fell by 4375 tons to 118550 tons. Inventories on the two major exchanges totaled 406045 tons, a decrease of 16925 tons. The impact of European and American sanctions on Russian metals has weakened, and the discount has been expanded again to US $120. at present, the loss of imported copper is around 1000 yuan per ton.

Changes in stock on the exchange

2. According to a follow-up survey, the social inventory of copper this week is 404700 tons, an increase of 1200 tons over last week. Recently, the volume of production reduction in the smelter is not obvious, the supply side of the market remains ample, and the market continues to rise sharply, further suppressing downstream demand, social inventory remains at an all-time high, and the inflection point of going to the warehouse in the peak consumption season has been postponed.

Social inventory (10,000 tons)

3, copper concentrate spot processing fee TC according to follow-up research, this week copper concentrate spot processing fee TC further reduced to 4.11 US dollars / ton, according to the smelter production cost of 50 US dollars / ton, the smelting process has been losing money for four months. So far, the centralized maintenance of the smelter is not obvious, the electrolytic copper market supply is abundant, the mine end supply is tight, the smelter demand for anode plate increases, and the processing fee remains at a high position.

Spot processing fee for copper concentrate TC

four

Copper price forecast

The copper in Shanghai first suppressed and then rose this week, and broke through the 80,000 mark again at the end of the week. Copper is still strong during the week and is expected to show a weak phase, but fundamental consumption has picked up in the last two weeks. The willingness to receive goods downstream of the copper terminal is further strengthened compared with last week, but the market consumer intention is still weak, and the terminal processing enterprises are forced to receive goods to supplement the capital chain of the copper market, which affects the further increase in the capacity utilization of some processing enterprises. On the macro news, the pressure on US economic growth has increased, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been further reduced, but macro optimism has faded less, bringing confidence support to the copper price in the general environment. Next week, we will mainly focus on the increase or decrease of capital positions, whether there will be a continuous decrease in positions during the price rise phase, and beware of the market stagnation caused by a large number of capital outflows after industrial end-to-end delivery. It is expected that there is still some space above copper prices. Reference range: Shanghai Copper main 7.8-83000; Lun Copper 9600-10500 US dollars, scrap copper 7.0-74000. Source: Fubao Nonferrous